The midterms are taking shape. So are the problems - for both parties | CNN Politics

After a major primary day this week in Michigan and other states, the battle for the House and Senate in the 2026 midterms has largely taken shape. And increasingly … it’s complicated. Elections are always messier the closer you get to November, with late developments that seem to come out of nowhere. There’s a reason the phrase “October Surprise” is a thing. But that’s especially been the case in recent weeks. While Democrats’ uphill battle to win the Senate majority has become more fraught and uncertain, the GOP’s uphill battle to hold the House is running into its own very pronounced headaches. So while the fundamentals have appeared pretty consistent for a while – Democrats have a clear advantage and chance to flip both chambers thanks to President Donald Trump’s historic unpopularity – the localized variables are starting to loom large. First, let’s tackle that Senate majority math. The biggest midterm news Tuesday – and arguably of the last few months – was left-wing candidate Abdul El-Sayed’s narrow victory in the Michigan Democratic primary. The former public health official, whom the Democratic establishment desperately tried to help Rep. Hale