Why this year's Atlantic hurricane season could produce fewer big storms

Weather forecasters in the US say that this year's Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be less active than normal, largely due to a developing El Niño. NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) has issued its forecast for the 2026 season and says there is a 55% chance of a below-average season, with between eight and 14 named storms of tropical storm strength or above. This would include three to six hurricanes, between one and three of which are expected to be major hurricanes - category three or stronger. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from 1 June to 30 November and would typically feature 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. There are competing factors that will influence how active this hurricane season might be. On the one hand, sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to be higher than normal - which would typically support a more active year, as hurricanes draw their energy from warm ocean waters. However, balanced against that is the growing chance of a strong El Niño. This natural climatic event sees the usual flow of east-to-west trade winds across the Pacific slowing down or even reversing, with warm water pooli