Quarter of a million people could lose job by middle of 2027 as UK ‘flirts with recession’, analysis says

Twin reports from top accounting firms underline scale of economic threat as Iran war shatters business confidence A quarter of a million people could lose their jobs by the middle of next year as Britain “flirts with recession”, analysis suggests, after business confidence was shattered by the US-Israel war on Iran. As the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, summoned bank chiefs for talks aimed at containing the fallout, twin reports from top accounting firms underlined the scale of the economic threat facing the UK. Iran’s retaliatory closure of the strait of Hormuz trade route and its strikes on its regional neighbours, which have sent oil and gas prices soaring, will cause the biggest economic hit since the Covid pandemic, according to the EY Item Club, an economic forecast group. A separate report by Deloitte found finance bosses at big UK businesses were already reining in their spending plans, taking action that was likely to weigh on economic activity and hiring. The EY Item Club said it expected the UK economy to flatline in the second and third quarters of this year, leaving the country at risk of recession, defined as two successive quarters of contraction. Growth is projec