No, Tehran is not winning | CNN Politics

Brett McGurk is a CNN global affairs analyst who served in senior national security positions under Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Joe Biden. A conventional wisdom has begun to settle over the war with Iran: Iran won. The argument is straightforward. The US and Israel bombed Iran for weeks, inflicted enormous damage, and demanded major concessions. Iran refused to surrender. Its government remains in power. Its missiles remain a threat across the region. And most important, Tehran still has the ability to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, imposing higher energy costs on the US and much of the world. Over the summer, Trump warned of a global depression if the Strait remained shut. That’s a strong argument. But it may have proved premature. Wars are contests of leverage and endurance. And the contest now looks very different from even a few months ago. The arc of this six-month conflict has proceeded in four acts. Act One began with intensive airstrikes on February 28 and lasted through six weeks of high-intensity military operations. Act Two began with the April 7 ceasefire and negotiations, culminating with the June 17 MOU signed by Trump a