New data shows asteroid 2024 YR4 will narrowly miss the moon | CNN

The possibility that a huge space rock — once deemed the riskiest asteroid ever observed — could hit the moon now appears to be off the table. Discovered at the end of December 2024, asteroid 2024 YR4 at first seemed a serious threat to Earth, with scientists estimating as much as a 3.1% chance of it impacting our planet on December 22, 2032. A series of observations from ground- and space-based telescopes quickly helped rule that out, but by June 2025, a new concern emerged: a 4.3% chance YR4 would slam into the moon instead. While Earth wouldn’t face any significant physical danger if the building-size asteroid struck the moon, researchers suggested that any astronauts or infrastructure on the lunar surface at the time could be at risk — as could satellites that we depend on to keep vital aspects of life, including navigation and communications, running smoothly. Astronomers didn’t expect to get a chance to better assess the risk of a YR4 lunar impact until the asteroid came back into view from Earth’s perspective in 2028. However, Dr. Andy Rivkin, planetary astronomer from the Johns Hopkins University’s Applied Physics Laboratory in Maryland, and Julien de Wit, ass