Some Good News About the Upcoming Atlantic Hurricane Season

With the start of the Atlantic hurricane season less than two months away, experts are looking to models to predict how severe its impact might be. The latest forecast from Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project is looking good. In a report published April 9, CSU experts predict below-normal cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin this season, with 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and just 2 major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater). That’s because the Pacific Ocean is transitioning to El Niño over the next few months, with a potential for a moderate-to-strong El Niño during the peak of hurricane season. In fact, some models are predicting a “super” El Niño. “We anticipate El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season,” the report reads. Under normal Pacific Ocean conditions (also known as ENSO-neutral) trade winds blow west along the equator, transporting warm water from South America to Asia. Cold water then rises from the depths to replace that warm water in a process called upwelling. El Niño and La Niña are two opposing climate patterns that disrupt these normal conditions. Together, they’re known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) c