Technology10/17/2025Ars Technica

12 years of HDD analysis brings insight to the bathtub curve’s reliability

12 years of HDD analysis brings insight to the bathtub curve’s reliability

The news article discusses a 12-year analysis of hard drive (HDD) failure rates by a backup firm. The study provides insights into the "bathtub curve," a reliability engineering concept that describes the failure rate of a product over time. The analysis, conducted by the backup firm Backblaze, examines over 175,000 HDDs across various models and manufacturers. The findings suggest that the bathtub curve may not accurately represent the failure rates of modern HDDs, as they do not exhibit the characteristic high initial failure rate. Instead, the data shows a relatively constant failure rate throughout the HDDs' lifespan, with a slight increase towards the end. This challenges the traditional view of the bathtub curve and provides a more nuanced understanding of HDD reliability. The article highlights the value of the backup firm's long-term data and its ability to offer a unique perspective on HDD failure rates, which can inform decision-making for businesses and individuals relying on these storage devices.

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