From leftwing voters to unions: can Burnham win back Labour bases lost by Starmer? – visualised

As Andy Burnham enters No 10, Guardian data analysis reveals the fissures with Labour’s traditional supporters, and the traps the new PM will want to avoid Keir Starmer entered 10 Downing St on a wave of optimism after a landslide victory in the 2024 general election. His Labour party had overturned a defeat in 2019 in which the party crashed to its worst result since 1935. Labour won 412 seats, just a few shy of the 418 won by Tony Blair in 1997, a result that gave Labour a leader in office for a decade. But a little more than two years after he came to power, Starmer’s tenure is over. Over the past 24 months the popularity of the human-rights lawyer turned prime minister has plummeted, from a net approval rating of -3 when he took office, to -66 by September 2025 – the lowest net approval rating recorded by Ipsos for any prime minister since 1977. As Andy Burnham takes over, Guardian data analysis reveals where Starmer lost support – among the ranks of his own MPs and among the electorate – and provides some insight about the bear traps Burnham’s team will want to avoid. When the Labour party was formed at the turn of the 20th century, it was synonymous with the trade