‘There is a good deal of fear’: what would a Labour leadership challenge mean for bond markets?

Rayner and Burnham are trying to gain markets’ confidence amid concerns they could loosen fiscal rules if they replace Starmer Who calls the shots on the bin collections in Sunderland, potholes in Hackney, or schools in Cardiff is not normally of interest to City traders in the multitrillion-pound sovereign bond market. But for those dealing in UK government debt, Thursday’s local and devolved government elections are significantly more important than usual, amid speculation that a dire showing for Keir Starmer’s Labour party could topple him as prime minister. “Usually local elections should not be a market relevant event, but this has indeed become one,” said Sanjay Raja, the chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank. “Mainly as the repercussions, not just from a leadership challenge, but also any changes to fiscal policy and any pressure on fiscal rules the chancellor had signed up to. That is what the market is really signed up to.” As the Iran war rattles the global economy, government borrowing costs have risen sharply worldwide. But in this sell-off, the UK has stood out, as investors dump the government’s bonds, known as gilts, more readily than the debts of its G