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The likelihood of the RBA raising interest rates has fallen. Have we finally come to our senses? | Greg Jericho

The latest inflation figures have put off the expectation of another rate rise until early next year – unless we look for an excuse for the RBA to move earlier Follow our Australia news live blog for latest updates Get our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcast The June inflation rate of 3.8% ended any real prospect of a rate rise next month, despite investors assuming the Reserve Bank would rather raise rates than not. There is a certain ghoulishness when it comes to economics and especially inflation. A “good” number will inevitably be dull news, whereas a bad number – one that is higher than expected or just higher – can lead to all manner of gnashing of teeth and wailing as the topic quickly shifts to interest rates. The linking of things to interest rates is not limited to inflation. Last week the June unemployment figures notionally showed unemployment had remained steady at 4.4% but when you scrapped back some of the rounding, it actually rose from 3.37% to 3.43%: The underemployment rate rose from 6.3% to 6.5%, which meant that the underutilisation rate – the total percentage of people in the labour force looking for a job or for more hours – rose rather steepl

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Aug 11, 2026
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Jul 29, 2026 → Aug 11, 2026

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Aug 11, 2026·The GuardianT2 · Outlet report
Morning Mail: Coalition backs One Nation policy, Bashar al-Assad sentenced to death, and what the RBA really believes

Want to get this in your inbox every weekday? Sign up for the Morning Mail here, and finish your day with our Afternoon Update newsletter Good morning. Despite pledging to fight Pauline Hanson’s insurgent rightwing movement, the Coalition…

Read original at The Guardian →
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Aug 11, 2026·The GuardianT2 · Outlet reportLATEST
Morning Mail: Coalition backs One Nation policy, Bashar al-Assad sentenced to death, and what the RBA really believes

Want to get this in your inbox every weekday? Sign up for the Morning Mail here, and finish your day with our Afternoon Update newsletter Good morning. Despite pledging to fight Pauline Hanson’s insurgent rightwing…

Read original at The Guardian →
Aug 11, 2026·The GuardianT2 · Outlet report
Bullock warns more hikes possible after RBA holds cash rate at 4.35% – as it happened

Get our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcast It’s been a jam-packed day as parliament returned for its first sitting fortnight after the winter break. Before we wrap up our live coverage for the day,…

Read original at The Guardian →
Aug 11, 2026·The GuardianT2 · Outlet reportKEY MOMENT
Afternoon Update: RBA holds interest rates; captive birds to be vaccinated; and one of Sam Neill’s final interviews

Want to get this in your inbox every weekday? Sign up for the Afternoon Update here, and start your day with our Morning Mail newsletter Good afternoon. It came as no surprise, but it will be welcome news for homeowners…

Read original at The Guardian →
Aug 10, 2026·The GuardianT2 · Outlet report
Australia’s falling house prices have a silver lining for mortgage holders. Here’s why

The RBA’s governor, Michele Bullock, has made it clear that the ‘easing’ property market is on her mind Get our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcast It is the silver lining that’s not making headlines:…

Read original at The Guardian →
Aug 6, 2026·The GuardianT2 · Outlet reportKEY MOMENT
Can Australia make housing affordable while avoiding a major market crash? We may soon find out

Politicians’ fever dreams of ‘sustainable price increases’ – where values keep rising but by less than wages – could happen Follow our Australia news live blog for latest updates Get our breaking news email, free app or…

Read original at The Guardian →
Aug 5, 2026·The GuardianT2 · Outlet report
The RBA says rate rises don’t really increase living costs. But the data is clear – they very much do | Greg Jericho

The latest cost of living figures show interest rate rises are having an impact on household costs, despite what the central bank says Get our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcast In this year’s June…

Read original at The Guardian →

July 2026

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Jul 30, 2026·The GuardianT2 · Outlet reportKEY MOMENT
Bank of England holds interest rates at 3.75% as inflation fears mount

Split vote comes as Iran war is rekindled and oil price climbs close to $90 a barrel Only Middle East crisis is preventing drop in UK interest rates The Bank of England has kept UK interest rates on hold as it warned…

Read original at The Guardian →
Jul 30, 2026·The GuardianT2 · Outlet report
Bank of England holds interest rates despite Iran war inflation threat - as it happened

Live, rolling coverage of business, economics and financial markets as three members of monetary policy committee vote to raise rates The Bank of England held bank rate steady at 3.75% on Thursday, but three of its nine…

Read original at The Guardian →
Jul 29, 2026·The GuardianT2 · Outlet reportOPENING
The likelihood of the RBA raising interest rates has fallen. Have we finally come to our senses? | Greg Jericho

The latest inflation figures have put off the expectation of another rate rise until early next year – unless we look for an excuse for the RBA to move earlier Follow our Australia news live blog for latest updates Get…

Read original at The Guardian →

Sources & evidence (9)

What this story stands on. Tier 0 is a primary record or the subject's own words; higher tiers must be attributed, never stated as bare fact.

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T2 · Outlet reportThe GuardianAug 11, 2026

Want to get this in your inbox every weekday? Sign up for the Morning Mail here, and finish your day with our Afternoon Update newsletter Good morning. Despite pledging to fight Pauline Hanson’s insurgent rightwing movement, the Coalition…

View source →
T2 · Outlet reportThe GuardianAug 11, 2026

Get our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcast It’s been a jam-packed day as parliament returned for its first sitting fortnight after the winter break. Before we wrap up our live coverage for the day, let’s take a look at the…

View source →
T2 · Outlet reportThe GuardianAug 11, 2026

Want to get this in your inbox every weekday? Sign up for the Afternoon Update here, and start your day with our Morning Mail newsletter Good afternoon. It came as no surprise, but it will be welcome news for homeowners nonetheless. In a…

View source →
T2 · Outlet reportThe GuardianAug 10, 2026

The RBA’s governor, Michele Bullock, has made it clear that the ‘easing’ property market is on her mind Get our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcast It is the silver lining that’s not making headlines: falling home prices…

View source →
T2 · Outlet reportThe GuardianAug 6, 2026

Politicians’ fever dreams of ‘sustainable price increases’ – where values keep rising but by less than wages – could happen Follow our Australia news live blog for latest updates Get our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcast…

View source →
T2 · Outlet reportThe GuardianAug 5, 2026

The latest cost of living figures show interest rate rises are having an impact on household costs, despite what the central bank says Get our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcast In this year’s June quarter, the cost of…

View source →

Tier key: T0 = Primary source · T1 = Wire · T2 = Outlet report · T3 = Commentary

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