The fuel crisis is about to whack Australia. Jim Chalmers’ budget must tread a fine line between panic and preparation | Peter Lewis

As the economy turns south, the treasurer will be faced with choices in how he responds. This calm before the shitstorm is an opportunity for reforms to energy, the NDIS and housing While the treasurer puts the finishing touches to a budget that was to be the lodestar of Labor’s second term, he could be forgiven for thinking he has been washed up on the set of Nevil Shute’s On the Beach. The Hollywood adaptation of Shute’s 1957 novel about Melburnians waiting for the arrival of nuclear fallout from an ill-judged Middle Eastern war speaks to this moment, as we confront the inevitable consequences of Donald Trump’s foolish bombing of Iran. While the 2020 global pandemic moved at jet speed, this crisis is its opposite, with the massive oil tankers travelling at the pace of a push-bike. Pre-blockade shipments are only arriving in Asia now, the interruptions to supply have not even begun, but they will be inevitable and devastating. Even if the government is not forced to ration fuel (and it probably will), the impact of this disaster will be felt beyond the bowser. Higher transport and fertiliser costs will drive up the price of staples. The chain reaction will cascade through