Trump’s Iran war may stymie climate gains with boost to big oil, experts say

Windfall profits could lock in Trump-era political wins for the industry and slow clean-energy transition The billions in profits big oil is reaping due to the Iran war may stymie the energy transition, experts and advocates fear, incentivizing oil and gas expansion and boosting the sector’s funds for political lobbying. “Windfall profits from Trump’s war will allow big oil to build a wall of money around its Trump-era political victories,” said Lukas Shankar-Ross, a deputy director at the green group Friends of the Earth. The deadly conflict in Iran has created a historic energy shock due to attacks on fossil fuel facilities and the blockage of the crucial strait of Hormuz trade route. Amid the chaos, energy prices – and oil companies’ earnings – have soared. ConocoPhillips last week reported $2.3bn in profits for the first three months of 2026, up 84% from before the war began. Meanwhile, the top petroleum refiner Valero Energy announced quarterly profits of $1.2bn, beating estimates. Liberty Energy, founded and formerly run by Donald Trump’s energy secretary, Chris Wright, saw quarterly earnings of $10m, up 32% from before the war began. BP, meanwhile, said it ha

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