Thank El Niño for NOAA’s new forecast for Atlantic hurricane season | CNN

Time is ticking down to the June 1 start of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s first forecast for it is finalized. NOAA’s team of experts is predicting a below-average hurricane season, similar to other experts’ forecasts in recent weeks. The anticipated return of El Niño — and its potential to become historically strong — is a major driving force behind the outlook. Overall, NOAA says this season has a 55% chance of being a below-average hurricane season with 35% and 10% chances of near-average and above-average seasons, respectively. ☔️ Get the CNN Weather app for iPhone Between eight and 14 total named storms — that means tropical storms and hurricanes — are expected in the basin from June 1 through November 30, when the season ends. Of those, NOAA expects between three and six to become hurricanes, with up to three of those reaching major hurricane status — Category 3 or higher. An average Atlantic hurricane season generates 14 named storms, of which seven are hurricanes and three are major hurricanes. The last time NOAA forecast a below-average season was in 2015, which also had an El Niño. Twelve

May 21, 2026 → Jun 11, 2026